Contrary to popular belief, there are ap[proaches that provide a sound basis to resolve and address what are widely referred to as 'wicked problems' where outcomes and contexts are dynamic, continually changing and interdependently affected my multiple factors many of whom are not determinable directly.
'Wicked' situations and problems cannot be resolved by design and research tools that aim to identify a fixed 'best' solution.
Our core assumptions are that wicked problems always involve:
- Multiple feedback loops in which different factors act on each other in ways that eventually change themselves as well
- There are delays between causes of changes and outcomes and these can be variable
- The situation dynamically changes in many ways over time, some fast some slow and not necessarily consistently.
- The boundaries of the situation can change
- Individuals and groups can wield power in ways that change how the situation operates and do this in different ways at different times
- Predicting the dynamic behaviour of the outcomes is essential
- The situation is influenced by a variety of contextual issues that also change over time and which the complex situation can also influence
- Ownership and control of different aspects of the 'wicked' or complex socio-technical situation may change
Our approach involves:
- Initial brief identification
- Literature review to identify existing knowledge
- Participatory consultation with stakeholders and experts to gather information via a variety of approaches including soft systems methodology methods, focus groups, public consultation meetings.
- Gathering of physical data if necessary.
- Preliminary mapping of 'wicked' situation - using a variety of methods including causal loop diagrams, state space diagrams, morphological mapping, layered function-process-need diagrams, dimensional analysis and social equivalents etc
- Identification of boundaries and boundary conditions as appropriate (linear programming, variety analysis, state space analysis, functional bounding,
- Review of preliminary mapping and boundary issues by reference group of stakeholders and experts and revision as necessary.
- Preliminary modelling. typically, this involves developing a testable dynamic model of the system using Vensim, Powersim or similar software, or a physical dynamic model.
- Reviewing and calibrating preliminary dynamic model via reference group and existing historic data
- Constructing and testing a practical representative dynamic model
- Collaborating with stakeholders to use the dynamic model to identify the best ways of addressing the wicked problem by reviewing the dynamic outcomes that result from the different strategies and approaches that are tried.